Is Wagner’s law applicable for fast growing economies? BRICS and MATIK countries

Authors

  • Bilal KARGI Aksaray University, Ankara Author

Keywords:

Wagner Law, BRICS and MATIK Country, Economic Growth

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of public spending, which is placed among the public sector’s economic activities, on the economic growth. The relationship in which the increase of public sector spending moves together with the growth is called as Wagner’s Law and it is examined through developing countries’ data. The hypothesis which is being tested is “there is a positive relationship between public spending and economic growth”.  The study focuses on 10 different fast growing countries’ economies’ data which are as firstly so called “BRICS Countries” which is composed of the fastest developing countries as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and secondly “MATIK Countries” which is contained of other fast developing countries as Mexico, Argentina, Turkey, Indonesia and Korea. Hypothesis is tested by using time series for the analyses. The primary contribution which the study would like to make is to bring attention to “MATIK economies”. This is a leading study in which Wagner’s Law is tested in addition to the fact that these country groups are moved to the agenda together. According to the applied test results, the findings that illustrate Wagner’s Rule is not valid for almost all the countries (BRICS+MATIK; BM) are reached.

Author Biography

  • Bilal KARGI, Aksaray University, Ankara

    Sereflikochisar UTIYO,

    Department of Banking and Finance

References

<p>Afxentiou, P. C. &amp; Serletis, A. (1996). Government expenditures in the European Union: Do they converge or follow Wagner’s Law, <em>International Economic Journal</em>, 10, 33-47. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168739600000003" target="_blank">10.1080/10168739600000003</a></p><p>Aggarwal, R. (2013). Adjusting to BRICs in Glass Houses: Replacing Obsolete Institutions and Business Models, <em>Thunderbird International Business Review</em>, 55(1), 37-54. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/tie.21522" target="_blank">10.1002/tie.21522</a></p><p>Akinlo, E. E. (2013). Government spending and national income nexus for Nigeria, <em>Global Journal of Business Research</em>, 7(1), 33-41.</p><p>Akitoby, B., Clements, B., Gupta, S. &amp; Inchauste, G. (2006). Public spending, voracity, and Wagner’s Law in developing countries, <em>European Journal of Political Economy</em>, 22(4), 908-928. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.12.001" target="_blank">10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.12.001</a></p><p>Aktan, B., Mandaci, P. E., Kopurlu, B. S. &amp; Ersener, B. (2009). Behavior of Emerging Stock Markets in The Global Financial Meltdown: Evidence From BRIC-A. <em>African Journal of Business Management</em>, 3(9), 396-404.  DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/AJBM09.121" target="_blank">10.5897/AJBM09.121</a></p><p>Alesina, A. &amp; Wacziarg, R. (1998). Openness, country size and government, <em>Journal of Public Economics</em>, 69(3), 305–321. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727%2898%2900010-3" target="_blank">10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00010-3</a></p><p>Andre´s, J., Domenech, R. &amp; Fatas, A. (2008). The stabilizing role of government size, <em>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control</em>, 32, 571–593. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.02.006" target="_blank">10.1016/j.jedc.2007.02.006</a></p><p>Barro, R. (1990). Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth, <em>Journal of Political Economy,</em> 98(5), S103-S125.  DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261726" target="_blank">10.1086/261726</a></p><p>Barro, R. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section countries, <em>Quarterly Journal of Economics</em>, 106(2), 407-443. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2937943" target="_blank">10.2307/2937943</a></p><p>Bashirli, S. &amp; Sabiroglu, I. M. (2013). Testing Wagner’s Law in an oil-exporting economy: The case of Azerbaijan, <em>Transition Studies Review</em>, 20(3), 295-307. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11300-013-0292-4" target="_blank">10.1007/s11300-013-0292-4</a></p><p>Biehl, D. (1998). Wagner’s Law: An introduction to and a translation of the last version of Adolph Wagner’s text of 1911, <em>Public Finance</em>, 53(1), 102-111.</p><p>Bird, R. M. (1971). Wagner's of Law' of expanding state activity, <em>Public Finance</em>, 26, 1-26.</p><p>Blackley, P. R. (2003). Price versus income effects as sources of growth in government’s share of GDP, <em>Public Finance Review</em>, 31(3), 241-262. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1091142103031003002" target="_blank">10.1177/1091142103031003002</a></p><p>Brückner, M., Chong, A. &amp; Gradstein, M. (2012). Estimating the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner’s Law based on oil price shocks, <em>Journal of Public Economics</em>, 96(11-12), 1025-1035. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.08.002" target="_blank">10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.08.002</a></p><p>Campo, S. S. (1998). Government employment and pay: The global and regional evidence, <em>Public Administration and Development</em>, 18(5), 457-478. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-162X(199812)18:5%3c457::AID-PAD40%3e3.0.CO;2-P" target="_blank">10.1002/(SICI)1099-162X(199812)18:5&lt;457::AID-PAD40&gt;3.0.CO;2-P</a></p><p>Chi-Hung, L. L. &amp; Chiehwen E. H. (2008). The association between government expenditure and economic growth: Granger causality test of US data, 1947-2002, <em>Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting, and Financial Management</em>, 20(4), 439-452.</p><p>Dickey, D. A. &amp; Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators of Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, <em>Journal of the American Statistical Association</em>, 74(366), 427-431. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2286348" target="_blank">10.2307/2286348</a></p><p>Dolenc, P. (2009). Wagner’s Law is still applicable: Empirical evidence for Slovenia, <em>Nase Gospodarstvo</em>, 55(5-6), 68-76.</p><p>Durevall, D. &amp; Henrekson, M. (2011). The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure, <em>Journal of Public Economics</em>, 95(7-8), 708-722. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1539425" target="_blank">10.2139/ssrn.1539425</a></p><p>Easterly, W. &amp; Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation, <em>Journal of Monetary Economics</em>, 32(3), 417–458. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932%2893%2990025-B" target="_blank">10.1016/0304-3932(93)90025-B</a></p><p>Engle, R. F., &amp; Granger, C. W. J. 1987. Co-integration and errors correction: Representation, estimation, and testing, <em>Econometrica</em>, 55, 251-276.</p><p>Fatas, A. &amp; Mihov, I. (2001). Government size and automatic stabilizers: International and international evidence, <em>Journal of International Economics</em>, 55(2), 3–28. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236" target="_blank">10.2307/1913236</a></p><p>Florio, M. &amp; Colautti, S. (2005). A logistic growth theory of public expenditures: A study of five country over 100 years, <em>Public Choice</em>, 122(3), 355-393. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-005-3900-y" target="_blank">10.1007/s11127-005-3900-y</a></p><p>Furuoka, F. (2008). Wagner’s Law in Malaysia: A New empirical evidence, <em>The Icfai University Journal of Applied Economics</em>, 7, 33-43.</p><p>Futagami, K., Morita, Y. &amp; Shibata A. (1993). Dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital, <em>Scandinavian Journal of Economics</em>, 95(4), 607-625. DOI:: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440914" target="_blank">10.2307/3440914</a></p><p>Ghartey, E. E. (2008). The budgetary process and economic growth: Empirical evidence of the Jamaican economy, <em>Economic Modelling</em>, 25(6), 1128-1136. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2008.02.004" target="_blank">10.1016/j.econmod.2008.02.004</a></p><p>Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, <em>Econometrica</em>, 373), 424-438. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912791" target="_blank">10.2307/1912791</a></p><p>Grenade, K. &amp; Wright, A. (2013). Public spending in selected Caribbean countries: Testing Wagner’s Law and the Ratchet Hypothesis, <em>Public Finance Review</em>, 42(4), 1-24. DOI:  <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1091142113499395" target="_blank">10.1177/1091142113499395</a></p><p>Gurgul, H., Lach, L. &amp; Mestel, R. (2012). The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland, <em>Central European Journal of Operations Research</em>, 20(1), 161-182. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0186-z" target="_blank">10.1007/s10100-010-0186-z</a></p><p>Henrekson, M. (1993). Wagner’s Law-A Spurious Relationship, <em>Public Finance</em>, 46(3), 406-415.</p><p>Inigues-Montiel, A. J. (2010). Government expenditure and national income in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner, <em>Applied Economics Letters</em>, 17(9), 887-893. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850802599433" target="_blank">10.1080/13504850802599433</a></p><p>Islam, A. M. (2001). Wagner’s Law revisited: Cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA, <em>Applied Economics Letters</em>, 8(8), 509-515. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850010018743" target="_blank">10.1080/13504850010018743</a></p><p>Iyare, S. O. &amp; Lorde, T. (2004). Co-integration, causality and Wagner’s Law: tests for selected Caribbean countries, <em>Applied Economics Letters</em>, 11(13), 815-825. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1350485042000254881" target="_blank">10.1080/1350485042000254881</a></p><p>Johansen, S. &amp; Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for Money, <em>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</em>, 52(2), 169-210. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x" target="_blank">10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x</a></p><p>Kalu, I. E. &amp; James, O. E. (2012). Government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria, 1980-2011, <em>International Journal of Academic Research</em>, 4(6), 204-208. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7813/2075-4124.2012/4-6/B.32" target="_blank">10.7813/2075-4124.2012/4-6/B.32</a></p><p>Kalam, M. A. &amp; Aziz, N. (2009). Growth of government expenditure in Bangladesh: An empirical enquiry into the validity of Wagner’s Law, <em>Global Economy Journal</em>, 9(2), 1-20. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1524-5861.1451" target="_blank">10.2202/1524-5861.1451</a></p><p>Kargı, B. (2014). The effects of BRICS and MATIK counties on world economy and cointegration analysis the long term relation with G-7 growth rates (1962-2012), <em>Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies</em>, 6(3), 262-272.</p><p>Khan, M. (2011). The Fall of The Wall, The Rise of The BRICs and The New Scramble for Africa. <em>Foresight</em>, 13(3), 38-49. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681111138758" target="_blank">10.1108/14636681111138758</a></p><p>Kumar, S., Webber, D. J. &amp; Fargher, S. (2012). Wagner’s Law revisited: Cointegration and causality tests for New Zealand, <em>Applied Economics</em>, 44(5), 607-616. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.511994" target="_blank">10.1080/00036846.2010.511994</a></p><p>Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., &amp; Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against the Alternative of a Unit Root, <em>Journal of Econometrics</em>, 54(1-3), 159-178. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076%2892%2990104-Y" target="_blank">10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y</a></p><p>Lamartina, S. &amp; Zaghini, A. (2010). Increasing public expenditure: Wagner’s Law in OECD countries, <em>German Economic Review</em>, 12(2), 149-164. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00517.x" target="_blank">10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00517.x</a></p><p>Liu, L. C-H., Hsu, C. E. and Younis, M. Z. (2008). The association between government expenditure and economic growth: Granger causality test of US data, 1947-2002, <em>Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management</em>, 20(4), 537-553.</p><p>Magazzino, C. (2012). Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy, <em>Journal of Policy Modeling</em>, 34(6), 890-905. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.05.012" target="_blank">10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.05.012</a></p><p>Milesi Ferretti, G. M., Perotti, R. &amp; Rostagno, M. (2002). Electoral systems and public spending, <em>Quarterly Journal of Economics</em>, 117(2), 609–656. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355302753650346" target="_blank">10.1162/003355302753650346</a></p><p>Narayan, P. K., Prasad, A. &amp; Singh, B. (2008). A test of the Wagner’s Hypothesis for the Fiji Islands, <em>Applied Economics</em>, 40(21), 2793-2801. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840600972472" target="_blank">10.1080/00036840600972472</a></p><p>Narayan, P. K., Nielsen, I. &amp; Smyth, R. (2008). Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces, <em>China Economic Review</em>, 19(2), 297-307. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2006.11.004" target="_blank">10.1016/j.chieco.2006.11.004</a></p><p>Narayan, S., Rath, B. N. &amp; Narayan, P. K. (2012). Evidence of Wagner’s Law from Indian states, <em>Economic Modelling</em>, 29(5), 1548-1557. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.004" target="_blank">10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.004</a></p><p>Oxley, L. (1994). Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law: a test for Britain, 1870-1913, <em>Scottish Journal of Political Economy</em>, 41(3), 286-298. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1994.tb01127.x" target="_blank">10.1111/j.1467-9485.1994.tb01127.x</a></p><p>Pesaran, M. H. &amp; Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, in <em>Econometrics and Economic Theory in the Increasing Public Expenditure 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium</em>, (Eds) S. Storm, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp.371-413.</p><p>Phillips, P. C. B. &amp; Perron, P. (1988). Testing for an unit root in time series regression, <em>Biometrika</em>, 75(2), 335-346. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335" target="_blank">10.1093/biomet/75.2.335</a></p><p>Ram, R. (1986). Causality between income and government expenditure: a broad international perspective, <em>Public Finance</em>, 41(3), 393-414.</p><p>Ram, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time series and cross-section perspectives: evidence from ‘real’ data for 115 countries, <em>Review of Economics and Statistics</em>, 69(2), 194-204. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1927226" target="_blank">10.2307/1927226</a></p><p>Rodrik, D. (1998). Why do more open economies have bigger governments?, <em>Journal of Political Economy</em>, 106(5), 997–1032. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/250038" target="_blank">10.1086/250038</a></p><p>Roubini, N. &amp; Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression, <em>Journal of Monetary Economics</em>, 35(2), 275-301. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932%2895%2901192-Q" target="_blank">10.1016/0304-3932(95)01192-Q</a></p><p>Roy, A. G. (2009). Evidence on economic growth and government size, <em>Applied Economics</em>, 41(5), 607-614. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840601007393" target="_blank">10.1080/00036840601007393</a></p><p>Rufael, Y. W. (2008). The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: The experience of 13 African counties, <em>African Development Review</em>, 20(2), 273-283. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2008.00185.x" target="_blank">10.1111/j.1467-8268.2008.00185.x</a></p><p>Sakyi, D. (2013). On the implications of trade openness, foreign aid and democracy for Wagner’s Law in developing countries: Panel data evidence from West African monetary zone (WAMZ), <em>The Journal of Developing Area</em>, 47(2), 319-339. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jda.2013.0033" target="_blank">10.1353/jda.2013.0033</a></p><p>Samudram, M., Nair, M. &amp; Vaithilingam, S. (2009). Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: The case of a developing economy, <em>Empirical Economics</em>, 36(3), 697-712. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0214-1" target="_blank">10.1007/s00181-008-0214-1</a></p><p>Schmalz, S. &amp; Ebenau, M. (2012). After Neoliberalism? Brazil, India, and China in the Global Economic Crisis. <em>Globalization</em>, 9(4), 487-501. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2012.699917" target="_blank">10.1080/14747731.2012.699917</a></p><p>Singh, S. (2013). Future of Golden BRICS, <em>Strategic Analysis</em>. 37(4), 393-397.  DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2013.802513" target="_blank">10.1080/09700161.2013.802513</a></p><p>Tang, C. F. (2008). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: New evidence from recursive regression-based causality approaches, <em>ICFAI Journal of Public Finance</em>, 6, 29-38.</p><p>Tang, C. F. (2010). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis in Malaysia: An impressionistic view, <em>International Journal of Business and Society</em>, 11, 87-96.</p><p>Thornton, J. (1999). Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law in 19<sup>th</sup> Century Europe, <em>Applied Economics Letters</em>, 6(7), 413-416. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/135048599352916">10.1080/135048599352916</a></p><p>Turnovsky, S. (1997). Fiscal policy in a growing economy with public capital, <em>Macroeconomic Dynamics</em>, 1(3), 615-639. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100597004045" target="_blank">10.1017/S1365100597004045</a></p><p>Wahab, M. (2004). Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification, <em>Applied Economics</em>, 36(19), 2125–2135. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000306923" target="_blank">10.1080/0003684042000306923</a></p><p>Wu, A. M., &amp; Lin, M. (2012). Determinants of government size: Evidence from China, <em>Public Choice</em>, 151(1), 255-270. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9746-y" target="_blank">10.1007/s11127-010-9746-y</a></p><p>Yao, X. N. &amp; Liu, J. Y. (2011). The Potential of Economic Growth and Technology Advancement in The BRICS, Proceedings of The 2011, International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, pp.1067-1071, 10-13 July, Guilin.</p><p>Zaman, K., Khan, M. M., Ahmad, M. &amp; Khilii, B. A. (2011). Growth, employment, exports and Wagner’s Law: Evidence from Pakistan’s agriculture sector (1960-2009), <em>International Journal of Rural Management</em>, 7(1-2), 27-41. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973005212459825" target="_blank">10.1177/0973005212459825</a></p>

Downloads

Published

2016-10-13

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Is Wagner’s law applicable for fast growing economies? BRICS and MATIK countries. (2016). Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, 9(1), 1-15. https://www.tjeb.ro/index.php/tjeb/article/view/TJEB9-1_01to15