Application of the VARMA Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory

  • Ramin BASHIR KHODAPARASTI <p>Urmia University</p>
  • Samad MOSLEHI University of Pyame Noor
Keywords: Forecasting Models, Autoregressive process.

Abstract

To forecast sales as reliably as possible is one of the most important issues in every business trade. Therefore, in recent years different models have been suggested to deal with this issue. One efficient model is the time series model. This study applies a multivariate time series model to forecast Urmia Gray Cement Factory's sales volume and more importantly, to propose an effective model to be used by other cement factories to predict their sales volume. The two independent variables of costs and revenues and the dependent variable of sales were used in the present study. Results of the study indicated the two independent variables had a positive and direct relationship with sales volume forecast.

Author Biographies

Ramin BASHIR KHODAPARASTI, <p>Urmia University</p>

Faculty of Economics and Management, Management department

Assistant professor

Samad MOSLEHI, University of Pyame Noor
Master of Statistics

References

Antoniou, A., Guney, Y., & Paudyal, K. (2002). Determinants of Corporate Capital Structure: Evidence from European Countries. Working Paper, University of Durham.

Booth, L., Aivazian, V., Demirgűc-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2001). Capital Structure in Developing Countries. Journal of Finance, 56(1), 87–130.

Chen, J. J. (2004). Determinants of Capital Structure of Chinese-Listed Companies. Journal of Business Research, 57(12), 1341–1351.

Cheng, S., & Shiu, C. (2007). Investor Protection and Capital Structure: International Evidence. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 17(1), 30-44.

Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analyses: Forecasting and Control. 2nd ed., Holden –Day, San Francisco.

Brockwell, P. J., & Davis, R. A. (1987). Time Series: Theory and Methods. Springer, New York.

Curtis, A., & Lundholm, R. J. (2013). Forecasting Sales: A Model and Some Evidence from the Retail Industry, Contemporary Accounting Research, 31(2), 581-608.

Frees, E. W., & Miller, T.W. (2004). Sales Forecasting Using Longitudinal Data Models. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 99-114 .

Hannan, E. (1970). Multiple Time Series. John Wiley, New York.

Mallin, M. L., O’Donnell, E. A., & Hu, M. Y. (2010). The Role of Uncertainty and Sales Control in the Development of Sales Manager Trust. Journal of Business and Industrial Marketing, 25(1), 30-42.

Musazadehgan, F., & Shahrabi, J. (2008). Mogayeseyeh sisteme pishbiniye foroosh pooshak va mansojat ba do roykarde khoshehbandi-derakhthayeh tasmim va shabakeyeh asabi, Civilica, Iran.

Slutsky, E. (1937). The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes. Econometrica,5, 105-146.

Tiao, G. C., & Box, G. E. P. (1981). Modeling Multiple Time Series with Application. Journal of American Statistical Association,7, 802-816.

Yule, G.U. (1927). On a method of Investigating Periodicities in Disturbed Series with Special Reference to Wolfer's Sunspot Numbers. Transactions of the Royal Society, London, A, 226, 267-298.

Published
2014-08-18
How to Cite
BASHIR KHODAPARASTI, R., & MOSLEHI, S. (2014). Application of the VARMA Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory. Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 89-101. Retrieved from https://www.tjeb.ro/index.php/tjeb/article/view/TJEB7-1_89to101
Section
Articles